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I don't see how it won't be. They lose insane amounts of money on subscription plans. I'm sure they still lose money on usage-based billing, but probably not as much.

> They lose insane amounts of money on subscription plans

Do we know this? I’ve seen evidence they lose money on heavy users. But so do gyms.


How do gyms lose money on heavy users? A heavy gym user isn’t really costing the gym anything extra as far as I can see.

> How do gyms lose money on heavy users?

Most gyms sell more subscriptions than they can fit under their roof at one time. If a gym only sells to heavy users, it will either be constantly turning members away or have to buy more equipment. Its equipment will wear off faster. Depending on amenities, it will go through towels, soap, water, et cetera faster, too.


Gym equipment lasts 10+ years in a commercial gym, at $50/mo that's a minimum of $6k paid from a single person.

Unless they're really, seriously wasteful with the soap.. there's no chance a gym is losing money on a heavy user


It depends on the gym and their business model! A super-budget gym like Planet Fitness that charges $15/month is going to lose money on heavy users, but they count on most of their members being infrequent gym-goers. A luxury gym like Equinox that charges $300/month can target heavy users without any issues, and they'd actually rather members go more so they stay and spend money on expensive salads and smoothies.

Right now all these AI subscriptions are priced like Planet Fitness, but they're used like Equinox. They're hoping that the new a la carte offerings will move their pricing more in that direction as well.


The other user is right, you are being a pedant. Why do you think planet fitness makes money hand over fist? Because 99% of its users sign up, never go, and then also never cancel because it’s cheap enough to leave running. Gyms absolutely bank on low amounts of power users, meaning the rest of the subscribers are subsidizing those that go frequently.

Members will switch gyms if it's too busy at times they want to visit. "Too busy" includes too much contention for a single piece of equipment.

US gyms might be vast warehouses but in the UK, most only have a couple of benches, couple of cages, one set of db per denomination above 20kg etc. They require working-in and consideration for others.

A couple of unapproachable "heavy users" doing 3 hour sessions across peak hours can ruin the workout for dozens of paying members needing a few min per station for ~5 sets.

It might also be a euphemism for "dickhead" who also tend to be "heavy users". Those that damage, hoard and don't share equipment and repel other customers on many levels besides - threatening, lecherous, loud and smelly.

Doesn't even need malicious intent - can be weirdo bores, forever talking at victims while doing a routine that makes absolutely no sense besides camping on equipment for half a day... 100 sets of incline press 7 days a week... what are you even doing to yourself fella?


>I’ve seen evidence they lose money on heavy users.

Where?


There are tons of blog posts where folks work out the API cost of their usage and find it well above subscription cost.

That doesn't mean the company is losing money in aggregate on these subscriptions. Buffets are still in business even though some people gorge themselves silly at them. The incremental cost may exceed the incremental revenue for a particular person or minority group, but that's not how these businesses measure profitability.

There is a difference between making less profit and losing money. Comparing to API cost can only show the former.

I assume consumers aren’t a big note in their bottom line. I’m not actually very sure about that, just an assumption.

What I wonder however is if these tools will become something I use at work only. $100/month is already a massive stretch budget wise. If these models keep devouring tokens there’s no way I’d get the same usage time out of them for $100 in usage credits.

I just don’t think I’d use them much at all at home.


I just saw him a couple weeks ago. It's such a fun show, people there are from ALL walks. He's no spring chicken but he gives it his all, and his band and backups do too. Just an all-around great dude.

Will confirm, all-around great dude. He's the kind of guy you WOULD find in those independent venues. He'll happily go out of his way for it.

> coming this fall

I believe we also heard that a couple years ago.


Went out of their way to show actual usage of these features on actual devices in actual people’s hands

Heh, I noticed the same thing, after the DaringFireball callout last year about the normal product demo progression. It looks "real" this time, but the question is how far along we are: will the journalists have a chance to play with it at the event?

It’s in the developer beta, people are posting videos of it, e.g.: https://x.com/iupdate/status/2064078761856037112?s=46

I noticed that, but I also noticed that it is ridiculously slow too which prompts the person to keep talking while the response was being generated.

After getting it in my hands, it's the same. At least 4 times slower for similar basic Siri responses. My guess is they are doing less local and more server-side generation to start as the on-device models might not be good enough yet.


In a pre-recorded video after who knows how many takes.

15 years ago they had the balls to run Siri live on stage: https://youtu.be/6rL9EL2LlrA?is=5yMQxs0C2VAC5Lwz


You could see jitter in the reflection on the MacBook as the guy typed, so that all looked great.

The responses came in very fast though, so I’m sceptical that the latency is representative (or that they didn’t cherry pick results, but they looked LLM generated). We shall see though.


Even for live shows they'd cherry pick specific scenarios that were known to work, and those would sometimes fail. IN a heavily produced pre-arranged pre-determined marketing video? It was as polished and made as smooth as possible.

I think that’s mostly okay, I just worry about the times. It was like 2-3 seconds to search and pull context then generate the answer.

I’m writing AI apps these days, and even pulling Gemini 3.5 flash on Google Cloud takes longer to get a multi-step response.

Obviously the video is not representative, and there are fast models on fast hardware. But if this takes 2 minutes it’s not very compelling to users.


I had a good giggle when I opened their homepage and it looks exactly like the Performative-UI library[1] currently in the #1 spot.

True, I think they were early to the trend though, it's looked like that basically since they launched: https://web.archive.org/web/20210821023119/https://lu.ma/

Books are a thing.

Or, buy a bluray player, then find a library.

It's run by a guy who literally did a nazi salute. One of their most prolific users is named "catturd". I'm astonished that anybody in research or science still remains there.

Edit to add: The owner of the platform contributed millions of dollars, endorsements, and manipulation of the platform to elect a regime which actively works to dismantle scientific and research funding and institutions. By continuing to use the platform, these people are contributing to the destruction of their work and careers.


I feel like I'm 'old' to say this, but I'm consistently surprised (which means it's at least some kind of a personal flaw) that companies put press releases out on a third party platform. They have their own website, and yet they update on other platforms more quickly and more frequently than their own. It's unnecessary outsourcing.

Even more-so now that it's impossible to see a feed in chronological order without signing up. It's a site that's supposedly for keeping up with the state of the world, and yet it's got a big wall around it. Talk about mixed messages.


Couldn't agree more. It's one thing to have an account and link to blog posts, it's another entirely to depend on a service to provide your latest information. Especially that one.

Even more mind-blowing is governments doing the same thing.


> sus out

Intentional typo as a good pun?


"sussed it out" = "worked it out" is a fairly normal slang-ish phrase where I'm from (Australia).

I know. "suss" != "sus". The latter is kid-slang for "suspect", or essentially not to be trusted.

Now the other golden question: Will they still require profitability?

Great news. Now let's surpass coal, the far more insidious and prevalent source!

more like $,$$$,$$$.$$

All the more reason to head out.

A few years on a salary like that and you may find that you can live fairly comfortably for a long time… in a place where the cost of living and housing are inexpensive.

I have an aunt who is quite old, who has been living for decades in a trailer in Eloy, Arizona. I suspect few people reading this will think that's any kind of an "escape plan", but I have been jealous of her seemingly contented and relaxed retirement for a long time now.

Perhaps you have to weigh it against, "working in the industry you hate for an other decade or two." Could you enjoy yourself in your retirement in your trailer? Is there something more you need to enjoy your retirement?


Most people at Meta (or other FAANGs) are caught up in the game. I have witnessed this first hand in the bay area.

They forgot what the end-goal is. They are just on the hamster wheel waiting for the next vest or next promo so they can brag they were made "staff" or "director". Every other discussion was about artificial levels and other corporate BS that those companies put in front of you to keep you grinding.

Meanwhile when you ask why not retire now that they saved 10M$. Most of them have no idea what they would spend their time doing. Their biggest achievement and satisfaction is to play that artificial money game.

The mean became the end. Very sad.


You're saying the average dev at Meta is making 7 figures?

There are quite a few making that much yearly but not the average. Median swe at meta is almost surely >1MM net worth at least and maybe even 2.

I'm exaggerating for (poor) comedic effect, as Meta has to pay more to attract people. Every time they've ever tried to recruit me I've lol'd at them and said I would never work there under any circumstances.

I mean... their stock is up more than 1,000% since 2014. Anyone who has been there for a few years should have multiple refreshers that have grown significantly in value.

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