(EU national in London) Not at all. I think the doomsday threats are overblown and the negotiating parties will reach a mutually beneficial deal at the 11th hour.
Much more concerned about the possibility of the current Labour party gaining power actually.
I think the chances of a deal are about 70% and trending lower.
The only fudge that can work at the 11th hour is staying in the EU in all but name; there is no way the EU can agree to something non-disruptive quickly without risking it continuing on indefinitely, which means it needs to be almost identical to what went before. And I don't think the Tories can sell that to either the public or their own membership.
A mutually beneficial deal will never happen; the UK cannot come out of Brexit better than before. Any mutual benefit can only come after the UK has climbed out of a pit scary enough to put off any further risk of countries leaving.
If public opinion on Brexit changes, then it might be different. I don't see that happening yet though, and the risks all seem to be on the downside - painting the EU as intransigent and punishing.
> If public opinion on Brexit changes, then it might be different. I don't see that happening yet though
I think it might. Polls on the subject have been tightening, and even showing signs of moving towards halting leaving[1].
I think as more of the leave voters die off (as they were predominantly older voters), and realisations about the actual real-world consequences of leaving filter through to the public consciousness, the process may be halted, softened, or reversed.
That's mostly conjecture (and hope, honestly) on my part, though.
Yeah, I spent most of last year having thoughts like this about Trump becoming president. He'll never get nominated.... he won't win.... yeah but surely something will happen at the 11th hour, he can't possibly become president, it's too crazy...
And now look where we are. I'm not sure your optimism is warranted. We're living in strange times.
People should describe a policy, and a means for that policy to have made a difference to the economy, when taking credit. Otherwise it's like taking credit for the sun rising.
At the very least until their first budget goes into effect. This is not a new concept. It's why the stupid right wing memes in like.. April were all "Obamas first 100 days vs Trumps first 100" - because Obama was dealing with the freaking recession and the Bush policies and budget.
Aside from tolerance for Antisemitism, being soft on Russia, picking and choosing on human rights (e.g. Syria), and appealing to base instincts on immigration (Eastern Europeans are keeping your wages down), what's so bad about Corbyn-led Labour?
Antisemitism:
mainstream Labour isn't antisemitic, that was largely a point pushed in our right media to discredit them. The left wing of the party is definitely anti-Israel though, and pro-Israel forces always try to conflate the two. The Labour party is much, much less racist than the Tory party on average, it's the sort of thing that's hard to prove with a neat fact you just have to spend time in a pub with either side or read a lot of their literature for dog-whistles.
soft on Russia: who knows, it's not like we have the military clout for it to matter much
picking and choosing on human rights: doesn't everyone
immigration racism - no, Corbyn's message (that i also disagree with actually) is to redirect the focus onto exploitative employers. It's his talking point on immigration along with NHS staffing, every time. The labour party has gotten worse on this but they're still miles behind the Tories
Sorry to do politics on HN but this post needed to be called out, none of these points are a combination of relevant and applying more to Labour than the Tories.
It doesn't matter how left-wing a politician appears to be, or even how left-wing they are in general; if they hold an odious reactionary opinion, they can be called out on that opinion.
Meh, that is not a critique of Corbyn as a Marxist, it's using communism as a scare word without delving into what Marxism actually is and why Corbyn matches the definition. Do you have a critique by someone who actually knows what Marxism is?
I can find plenty of descriptions of many politicians as Fascist (and usually better researched than this), doesn't mean most of them are.
Specifically that article is by Damian McBride, who was Gordon Brown's SPAD. It's continuation of a political brawl by means of a newspaper column. Not a very nice chap:
"On 11 April 2009, he resigned his position after it emerged on a political blog that he and another Labour Party advisor, Derek Draper, had exchanged emails discussing the possibility of disseminating rumours McBride had fabricated about the private lives of some Conservative Party politicians and their spouses. The emails from McBride had been sent from his No. 10 Downing Street email account."
A web search is not meant to count as research, it is the equivalent of a library catalogue search. You're meant to follow the links and find out what is written on the subject. It is the internet equivalent of a literature study and as such a form or research. The assumption here is that the reader is intelligent enough to be able to separate authoritative sources from hearsay and agenda-based publications.
By the way, using terms like "no reputable journalist" is called "Master suppression technique" or "domination technique" [1]. It is detrimental to having a fact-based discussion and generally seen as a cop-out for those who don't have real arguments to add to the discussion.
> negotiating parties will reach a mutually beneficial deal at the 11th hour
Compare with the situation of Greece. There was essentially very little change in the EU position, and Greece eventually realised they had no leverage and would be worse off outside the EU and had to acquiesce.
The only deals that have a chance of happening are "forget the whole thing, no Brexit" or maybe "Norway" (EEA including free movement, but no voting rights). "No deal" would be a disaster.
And if it's left until the 11th hour plenty of companies will have no choice but to avoid planning beyond that time. Like Ryanair pointing out that they can't take bookings without knowing what legal framework will be in place: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/11/ryanair-chief-mic...
Much more concerned about the possibility of the current Labour party gaining power actually.