This is great of California's Govt, and I really can't wait to use this form of transit. However, which of the following is going to make this increasingly difficult, and how does Google and friends plan to supplant them?
* car manufacturers -- less need for [fancy] cars when
* no one is looking
* computers are doing the handling
* car manufacturers -- less need to purchase cars
* there are less owners -- cars are more easily shared
* there are less totals -- cars crash less
* there is less wear and tear on autonomous driving
* insurance providers -- less claims... less revenue
* etc...
Will atonomous cars hit these players' bottom lines? What can they do to lobby against autonomous cars actually coming to fruition? I see it being akin to the MAFIAA vs. Entertainment Industry and possibly worse.
Car ownership for status reasons would not change. The market would still be stratified by style, size, badge/brand and features.
The introduction of driverless cars, if anything, is likely to make total miles driven go up. The actual number of cars purchased would go up as long as the miles are going up. The number of individual purchasers doesn't matter, it's how many old cars are getting worn out that matters. They get serviced as they wear out, and manufacturers would still make plenty of money doing that. Even more so, probably, because they could program the cars to come in for a service when needed, guaranteeing them more service revenue.
Insurance providers would only be too happy to write out policies on overall crash/theft data that doesn't involve random events like people falling asleep or driving drunk. If anything, it would make vehicle insurance easier. But the number of claims doesn't really matter to an insurer - they expect to pay out all of their policy revenue on claims - what matters is investing the pool of funds well in the holding period between policy income and claims expense.
Any new product can only be positive for the people who make them. The only ones looking at real trouble are those who don't enter the market (if it turns out to be a success) or those who chase the wrong ideas, plus people who make a living driving cars.
