> I would not be surprised at AI having a similar enabling effect over the long term.
The big difference is that the current AI bubble isn't building durable infrastructure.
Building the railroads or the interstate was obscenely expensive, but 100+ years down the line we are still profiting from the investments made back then. Massive startup costs, relatively low costs to maintain and expand.
AI is a different story. I would be very surprised if any of the current GPUs are still in use only 20 years from now, and newer models aren't a trivial expansion of an older model either. Keeping AI going means continuously making massive investments - so it better finds a way to make a profit fast.
GPUs are consumables, not infrastructure. Model weights are the lasting thing.
It's always like that with software. You can still run an OS or a program made 20 years ago, in some cases that program may in fact have no modern replacements available (think niche domains) - meanwhile, in those 20 years, you've probably churned through 5-10 generations of computing hardware.
The big difference is that the current AI bubble isn't building durable infrastructure.
Building the railroads or the interstate was obscenely expensive, but 100+ years down the line we are still profiting from the investments made back then. Massive startup costs, relatively low costs to maintain and expand.
AI is a different story. I would be very surprised if any of the current GPUs are still in use only 20 years from now, and newer models aren't a trivial expansion of an older model either. Keeping AI going means continuously making massive investments - so it better finds a way to make a profit fast.