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People have a very strong tendency to go "current gen technology cant achieve x, therefore its impossible for this class of technology to ever achieve x"

Many many many of the problems with current gen ai will go away.



Ah, the classic "But just you wait, the next version will be better!" fallacy.

It's a fallacy because the reality is often not that…in fact sometimes the reality ends up worse. (See "enshittification", a process whereby technology gets worse over time, not better.)


The next version from that vendor. Or maybe the market commoditization.

You’re again conflating the product offerings from the capacity of the technology. It’s like kinetic energy vs potential energy.

The real wait is for the cost in disk space, memory and electricity of pretraining a transformer to be something the equivalent of a raspberry pi can accomplish. Then all the style and design choices of the few current vendors goes away.




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