1. The massive amounts of GPUs being purchased have far shorter valuable lifespans than a house.
2. A model's value seems to be depreciating at an unbelievable rate. The most expensive top SOTA models (GPT-5, Opus 4.1) a year ago are far less capable than GPT-5.6 Luna. Compared to when those models were new, Luna costs 85% less than GPT-5 and 98% less than Opus 4.1. That's good for us consumers, but if a lab stumbles for 6-12 months, a lot of their value goes away. Especially with open models only months behind the SOTA closed models.
Even if it is 5 or 7 years, houses last decades. Even cars last longer than GPUs. GPUs are a highly depreciating asset. They'll last longer than 3 years, but might not be very cost effective (tokens per Wh) compared to the latest AI accelerators that are available.
I wonder if it will be that the U.S. (and allied countries) will be using the latest 1-2 generations of AI accelerators, and if the 3-5+ year old stuff will be sold to Chinese datacenters since that will still be the most powerful tech we'll be allowed to export to them?
2. A model's value seems to be depreciating at an unbelievable rate. The most expensive top SOTA models (GPT-5, Opus 4.1) a year ago are far less capable than GPT-5.6 Luna. Compared to when those models were new, Luna costs 85% less than GPT-5 and 98% less than Opus 4.1. That's good for us consumers, but if a lab stumbles for 6-12 months, a lot of their value goes away. Especially with open models only months behind the SOTA closed models.