The predictor already exists, there's a common FMRI experiment in neuroscience where with about 80% accuracy the scientists can predict you're about to push the button about one second before you decide to do it. Someone no doubt will post a link, I don't have time to Google it now. I'm guessing it's the inspiration for this story.
I'm more curious about what you guys think. I've long thought the arguments against free will are much stronger than those for it, but it's an unsettling idea to live with.
It'd be a "predictor" if an FMRI could predict that the neurons are about to light up a second before that happens, rather than just measure the delay between neuron activity and conscious perception or conscious motor control.
Regardless, if anyone finds the thought that an FMRI can detect you making a decision a significant amount of time before you're aware of making that decision particularly interesting, this book dives into that research and much more about the nature of consciousness from a neuroscience and information theory POV:
in which the brain is likened to a person riding and elephant. We can train the elephant, but mostly the elephant repeats its program.
It's billed as about "happiness," but imo that's only one slice of it. It applies to all habits, including eating, exercise, improving sw development skills...
Interesting. If the observers were to play a distracting tone every time they predicted that you were about to decide to press the button, would you never experience deciding to press the button?
I'm more curious about what you guys think. I've long thought the arguments against free will are much stronger than those for it, but it's an unsettling idea to live with.